papers, data, and programs

Various versions of the papers listed below are available on REPEC.
Current Working Papers
“Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises” (with Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Jonathan Wright)
(Working Paper, CEPR DP, NBER WP, Appendix, Toolbox)
“Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy” (with Carlo Altavilla, Luca Brugnolini, Giuseppe Ragusa, and Roberto Motto)
in progress
“Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect” (with Gökçe Karasoy-Can and Sang Seok Lee)
in progress
“Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Spatial Evidence” (with Marcel Fratzscher and Gülserim Özcan)
in progress
“Judging the DSGE Model by Its Forecast” (with Rochelle Edge and Burçin Kısacıkoğlu)
in progress
“Forward Guidance and Asset Prices” (with Yıldız Akkaya, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, and Jonathan Wright)
in progress
Published Work
DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy co-editor (with Cedric Tille)
CEPR eBook, 2017.
(eBook, VoxEU Column)
Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?” (with Troy Davig)
International Journal of Central Banking 11, September 2015, 353-384.
(Working Paper, VoxEU Column, CEPR DP, Data and Programs)
Taming Capital Flows: Capital Account Management in an Era of Globalization co-editor (with Joe Stiglitz)
Palgrave MacMillan, 2015
“Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out of Sample than VAR Models?” (with Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Barbara Rossi)
in T. Fomby and L. Kilian (eds.) Advances in Econometrics, vol 32, 2013, Emerald Publishing, 27-79.
(Working Paper, CEPR DP, Data and Programs)
Identification and Inference Using Event Studies.” (with Jonathan Wright)
Manchester School, Supplement 2013, 48-65.
(Working Paper, CEPR DP)
Macroeconomics and the Term Structure.” (with Jonathan Wright)
Journal of Economic Literature 50(2), June 2012, 331-67.
(Working Paper, Bond Yields: The Movie, CEPR DP, Data and Programs)
How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?” (with Rochelle Edge)
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2010, 209-244.
(Working Paper, VoxEU Column, CEPR DP, Data and Programs)
The Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in The Euro Area.” (with Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, and Eric Swanson).
Review of Economics and Statistics 93(1), February 2011, 350–364.
(ECB working paper, CEPR DP)
Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden.” (with Andrew Levin and Eric Swanson)
Journal of the European Economic Association 8(6), December 2010, 1208–1242.
(Working paper, CEPR DP)
"The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation." (with Brian Sack and Jonathan Wright)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2(1), January 2010, 70-92.
(FEDS working paper, daily US TIPS yield curve data)
The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve: 1961 to the Present.” (with Brian Sack and Jonathan Wright)
Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), November 2007, 2291-2304.
(FEDS working paper, daily US yield curve data)
Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock.
Journal of Economic Surveys 22(1), February 2008, 166-186.
(Latest working paper, older FEDS working paper)
Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations.” (with Brian Sack and Eric Swanson)
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 25(2), April 2007, 201-12.
(Latest working paper, older FEDS working paper)
Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk.” (with Justin Wolfers)
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 (2), 2007, 11-50.
(Working paper, CEPR DP, NBER WP, Data and Programs)
Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements” (with Brian Sack and Eric Swanson)
International Journal of Central Banking 1(1), May 2005, 55-93.
(FEDS working paper, Data and Programs)
The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models” (with Brian Sack and Eric Swanson)
American Economic Review 95(1), March 2005, 425-36.
(Longer FEDS working paper)
Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously” (with Ben Bernanke)
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16, 2001, 11-57.
(Working Paper, NBER WP, Data and Programs)
Older Working Papers
“Using Federal Funds Futures for Monetary Policy Analysis.”
(FEDS working paper)
Research on Turkish Economy
Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence.” (with Zeynep Kantur, Anıl Taş, and Seçil Yıldırm-Karaman)
İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 30(356), 2015, 9-38.
Cari Açık, Bütçe Dengesi, Finansal İstikrar ve Para Politikası: Heyecanlı Bir Dönemin İzi.” (with Yıldız Akkaya)
İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 27(315), 2012, 93-119.
Türkiye’de Piyasa Göstergelerinden Para Politikası Beklentilerinin Ölçülmesi.” (with Harun Alp, Hakan Kara, Gürsu Keleş, and Musa Orak)
İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 25(295), 2010, 21-45.
Türkiye'de Para Politikasının Aktarımı: Para Politikasının Mali Piyasalara Etkisi.” (with Zelal Aktaş, Harun Alp, Mehtap Kesriyeli, and Musa Orak)
İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 24(278), 2009, 9-24.
Devlet İç Borçlanma Senetleri İçin Getiri Eğrisi Tahmini.” (with with Özge Akıncı, Burcu Gürcihan, and Özgür Özel)
İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 22(252), 2007, 5-25.
Popular Writing
Türkiye ve Ekonomisi.
Birikim 336, Nisan 2017.
AKP Döneminde Türkiye Ekonomisi.” (with Selin Sayek Böke)
Birikim 296, Aralık 2013.
İktisat ile Toplum Bilimleri: Bir Katolik Evliliğinden Kenar Notları.” (with Ali Burak Güven)
Toplum ve Bilim 95, Kış 2003, 6-22.
Krizimiz Bizimdir. Sahiplenelim.
Birikim 145, Mayıs 2001.

Main page