| Various versions of the papers listed below are available on REPEC. |
| Current Working Papers | "Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory" (with Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Sang Seok Lee) |
| Economic Policy, under revision. |
| (Working Paper, CEPR DP, Data and Programs) |
| "Output Concerns and Precautionary Savings in Emerging Markets' Debt and Reserve Accumulation" (with Sang Seok Lee, Paul Luk, and Ju Hyun Pyun) |
| (Working Paper, CEPR DP) |
| Published Work | "Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect" (with Gökçe Karasoy-Can and Sang Seok Lee) |
| Journal of Finance 77(4), August 2022, 2375-2421. |
| (Working Paper, CEPR DP, Appendix, Data and Programs) |
| "Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior" (with A. Hakan Kara, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, and Sang Seok Lee) |
| Journal of International Economics 130, May 2021, 103443 |
| (Working Paper, CEPR DP, Data and Code) |
| "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises" (with Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Jonathan Wright) |
| American Economic Review 110(12), December 2020, 3871-3912 |
| (Working Paper, VoxEU Column, CEPR DP, NBER WP, Appendix, Toolbox) |
| "Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy" (with Carlo Altavilla, Luca Brugnolini, Giuseppe Ragusa, and Roberto Motto) |
| Journal of Monetary Economics 108, December 2019, 162-179. |
| (Working Paper, VoxEU Column I (EA-MPD), VoxEU Column II (Analysis), ECB WP, CEPR DP, EA-MPD (Euro Area Monetary Policy Event Study Database), Appendix, Data and Programs) |
| DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy co-editor (with Cedric Tille) |
| CEPR eBook, 2017. |
| (eBook, VoxEU Column) |
| "Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?" (with Troy Davig) |
| International Journal of Central Banking 11, September 2015, 353-384. |
| (Working Paper, VoxEU Column, CEPR DP, Data and Programs) |
| Taming Capital Flows: Capital Account Management in an Era of Globalization co-editor (with Joe Stiglitz) |
| Palgrave MacMillan, 2015 |
| "Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out of Sample than VAR Models?" (with Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Barbara Rossi) |
| in T. Fomby and L. Kilian (eds.) Advances in Econometrics, vol 32, 2013, Emerald Publishing, 27-79. |
| (Working Paper, CEPR DP, Data and Programs) |
| "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies." (with Jonathan Wright) |
| Manchester School, Supplement 2013, 48-65. |
| (Working Paper, CEPR DP) |
| "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure." (with Jonathan Wright) |
| Journal of Economic Literature 50(2), June 2012, 331-67. |
| (Working Paper, Bond Yields: The Movie, CEPR DP, Data and Programs) |
| "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?" (with Rochelle Edge) |
| Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2010, 209-244. |
| (Working Paper, VoxEU Column, CEPR DP, Data and Programs) |
| "The Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in The Euro Area." (with Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, and Eric Swanson). |
| Review of Economics and Statistics 93(1), February 2011, 350-364. |
| (ECB working paper, CEPR DP) |
| "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden." (with Andrew Levin and Eric Swanson) |
| Journal of the European Economic Association 8(6), December 2010, 1208-1242. |
| (Working paper, CEPR DP) |
| "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation." (with Brian Sack and Jonathan Wright) |
| American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2(1), January 2010, 70-92. |
| (FEDS working paper, daily US TIPS yield curve data) |
| "The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve: 1961 to the Present." (with Brian Sack and Jonathan Wright) |
| Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), November 2007, 2291-2304. |
| (FEDS working paper, daily US yield curve data) |
| "Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock." |
| Journal of Economic Surveys 22(1), February 2008, 166-186. |
| (Latest working paper, older FEDS working paper) |
| "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations." (with Brian Sack and Eric Swanson) |
| Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 25(2), April 2007, 201-12. |
| (Latest working paper, older FEDS working paper) |
| "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk." (with Justin Wolfers) |
| NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 (2), 2007, 11-50. |
| (Working paper, CEPR DP, NBER WP, Data and Programs) |
| "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements" (with Brian Sack and Eric Swanson) |
| International Journal of Central Banking 1(1), May 2005, 55-93. |
| (FEDS working paper, Data and Programs) |
| "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models" (with Brian Sack and Eric Swanson) |
| American Economic Review 95(1), March 2005, 425-36. |
| (Longer FEDS working paper) |
| "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously" (with Ben Bernanke) |
| NBER Macroeconomics Annual 16, 2001, 11-57. |
| (Working Paper, NBER WP, Data and Programs) |
| Older Working Papers |
| "Using Federal Funds Futures for Monetary Policy Analysis." |
| (FEDS working paper) |
| Research on Turkish Economy | "Türkiye'nin Enflasyon Tercihleri." (with with Sang Seok Lee, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Alp Şimşek) |
| Bilkent University Working Paper |
| "Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence." (with Zeynep Kantur, Anıl Taş, and Seçil Yıldır m-Karaman) |
| İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 30(356), 2015, 9-38. |
| "Cari Açık, Bütçe Dengesi, Finansal İstikrar ve Para Politikası: Heyecanlı Bir Dönemin İzi." (with Yıldız Akkaya) |
| İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 27(315), 2012, 93-119. |
| "Türkiye'de Piyasa Göstergelerinden Para Politikası Beklentilerinin Ölçülmesi." (with Harun Alp, Hakan Kara, Gürsu Keleş, and Musa Orak) |
| İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 25(295), 2010, 21-45. |
| "Türkiye'de Para Politikasının Aktarımı: Para Politikasının Mali Piyasalara Etkisi." (with Zelal Aktaş, Harun Alp, Mehtap Kesriyeli, and Musa Orak) |
| İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 24(278), 2009, 9-24. |
| "Devlet İç Borçlanma Senetleri İçin Getiri Eğrisi Tahmini." (with with Özge Akıncı, Burcu Gürcihan, and Özgür Özel) |
| İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 22(252), 2007, 5-25. |
| Popular Writing | "Latin Amerika'da Dezenflasyon: Şili ve Peru Örnekleri." (with Burçin Kısacıkoğlu) |
| İktisat ve Toplum 127, Mayıs 2021. |
| "Türkiye ve Ekonomisi." |
| Birikim 336, Nisan 2017. |
| "AKP Döneminde Türkiye Ekonomisi." (with Selin Sayek Böke) |
| Birikim 296, Aralık 2013. |
| "İktisat ile Toplum Bilimleri: Bir Katolik Evliliğinden Kenar Notları." (with Ali Burak Güven) |
| Toplum ve Bilim 95, Kış 2003, 6-22. |
| "Krizimiz Bizimdir. Sahiplenelim." |
| Birikim 145, Mayıs 2001. |